FRED data on March 27, 2026 shows the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread at 0.56 percentage points. The curve is no longer inverted, and that changes duration conversations.
Yet credit spreads remain tight. High-yield OAS printed 3.21 on March 26 after touching 3.17 the day before. So the market is re-steepening the curve while still keeping credit compensation compressed.
That combination usually supports selective risk-taking, not blanket beta exposure. A positive slope can improve carry logic, but tight credit spreads reduce the room for fundamental surprises.
For LedgerTouch users, this is a signal to separate rate view from credit view. You can own duration with discipline while still requiring stronger underwriting standards in lower-quality credit.
If this regime persists, portfolio performance will come less from macro direction calls and more from avoiding idiosyncratic credit risk when spread buffers are thin.