Key takeaways
- NVIDIA's fiscal 2026 revenue was $215.9 billion, up 65%, of which $193.7 billion (89.7%) came from Data Center.
- Two direct customers accounted for 22% and 14% of fiscal 2026 revenue — 36% of the year between them, per the 10-K.
- NVIDIA was 7.58% of the S&P 500 at 31 March 2026 and 7.50% at 30 June 2026; the index's top 10 holdings were 36.5% in March.
- A 30% fall in NVIDIA alone subtracts roughly 2.3 percentage points from an S&P 500 tracker before any spillover.
- NVIDIA returned $41.1 billion to shareholders in fiscal 2026, against $130.4 billion of operating income.
The fiscal 2026 numbers, and the FY2025 numbers people keep quoting instead
NVIDIA closed fiscal 2026 (year ended 25 January 2026) with revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65%. The prior year — fiscal 2025 — was $130.5 billion. Those two figures are close enough in shape that they are routinely swapped, and the swap understates the current run-rate by $85.4 billion. The 10-K states the segment split directly: Compute & Networking $193,479 million, Graphics $22,459 million, total $215,938 million. Compute & Networking is a reportable segment; the $193.7 billion Data Center figure used below is a market platform. They are separate disclosures that happen to land within $0.3 billion of each other, and they are not the same number.
Fourth-quarter Data Center revenue was $62.3 billion, up 75% year on year and up 22% on the third quarter. Full-year Data Center revenue rose 68% to $193.7 billion. Operating income was $130.4 billion; diluted EPS $4.90. The chart below plots the four figures that matter for sizing — full-year revenue, full-year Data Center revenue, fourth-quarter Data Center revenue, and capital returned — all in billions of dollars, all from the fiscal 2026 release and 8-K.
89.7% of revenue is one segment, and 36% of it is two customers
The concentration question is usually framed as "how much NVIDIA does the portfolio own." That is the second-order question. The first-order question is how much concentration sits inside NVIDIA itself.
Data Center is 89.7% of fiscal 2026 revenue ($193.7 billion of $215.9 billion). Inside that, the 10-K discloses that sales to one direct customer represented 22% of total revenue and sales to another direct customer represented 14% — 36% of the fiscal year from two counterparties, both attributed primarily to Compute & Networking. NVIDIA also notes that it estimates some individual indirect customers at 10% or more of revenue.
This is not a company whose revenue base diversifies as it grows. It is one whose revenue base has concentrated as it grew.
A 7.58% index weight is a portfolio decision even for people who own no NVIDIA
State Street's SPDR S&P 500 ETF factsheet, as of 31 March 2026, lists NVIDIA at 7.58% of the fund, ahead of Apple at 6.66% and Microsoft at 4.91%. The top 10 holdings sum to 36.5% of a 503-holding index. Information Technology is 32.91% of sector weight. That weight is a snapshot with a short shelf life: the same factsheet at 30 June 2026 puts NVIDIA at 7.50%, Apple at 6.57% and Information Technology at 38.03% of a 504-holding index. Every index-weight figure in this piece carries its as-of date for that reason.
The arithmetic that follows is unglamorous and worth doing. At the 7.58% weight of 31 March, a 30% decline in NVIDIA's share price removes about 2.3 percentage points from the index, mechanically, before any correlated move in Broadcom, Micron, or the hyperscalers that buy the chips. A 50% decline removes about 3.8 percentage points on the same basis. On the 30 June weight of 7.50% the same two calculations give 2.25 and 3.75 points, so the conclusion does not turn on the vintage. An investor holding a global equity fund, a US large-cap fund, and a technology sleeve may be running a single-name exposure well into double digits without ever having placed a trade in the ticker.
$41.1 billion returned tells you about cash conversion, not durability
NVIDIA returned $41.1 billion to shareholders during fiscal 2026 through buybacks and dividends. Against $130.4 billion of operating income, that is roughly 32% of operating profit returned — a company funding a capital-intensive platform transition and still handing back a third of its operating income.
What the buyback does not settle is whether the demand behind the $193.7 billion is annuity-like or order-book-like. NVIDIA's own risk language is explicit that customers "can generally cancel, change, or delay product purchase commitments with little notice." A repurchase programme is evidence of cash generation today, not of revenue visibility tomorrow.
What would falsify this reading
The concentration argument breaks in two directions. If the two disclosed direct customers are channel intermediaries rather than end buyers — ODMs and system integrators assembling for many end customers — then the 22% and 14% figures overstate genuine counterparty risk, and NVIDIA's disclosure explicitly warns that direct and indirect customer identity differ. The 10-K does not name them, so this cannot be settled from the filing.
Equally, index weight is a point-in-time observation. The 7.58% figure is dated 31 March 2026; float-adjusted weights move with price every day, and the factsheet is the only figure here that will be stale within a week. What the data cannot tell you is the elasticity of Data Center demand to a change in AI capital budgets — no line in the filing measures it.
The disclosure to read next is not the earnings release
The FY2027 10-K's customer-concentration paragraph is a more informative document than the next four quarterly releases combined. If the two named percentages fall while revenue grows, the demand base is broadening and the index weight is safer than it looks. If they rise, then a 7.58% index position is a levered bet on two balance sheets that no S&P 500 investor has ever seen. That paragraph is three sentences long and it is the one that will not appear in the headline. The same compute spending shows up as a cost line elsewhere in software — and the discount rate applied to it is being set by an oil shock.