Eurozone HICP Cools to 2.5%: ECB's Path to Q2 Cuts Clears
Eurostat's March HICP data surprised markets, cooling to 2.5% and clearing the path for the ECB to begin rate cuts in Q2 2026. This chall...
· 7 min read
LedgerTouch Intelligence | Market Analysis & Portfolio Commentary
ECB Signals a Stability Fight, Not Just an Inflation Fight
Eurozone inflation re-accelerated to 2.5% in March, driven by a 4.9% energy price surge. While markets focused on the headline miss, the ...
· 6 min read
Warsh's Fed: A Plan to End the Dot Plot Threatens Bonds
President Trump's Fed nominee Kevin Warsh plans to scrap the 'dot plot' and forward guidance. This isn't a tweak—it's a regime change tha...
· 8 min read
Iran Conflict Resets the Fed's Rate Path
The market's repricing of Federal Reserve policy, from expected 2026 cuts to potential hikes, is a direct result of energy-led inflation ...
· 6 min read
Wage Growth and Labor Scarcity Reset Fed's Rate Path
March labor data showed slowing job growth but accelerating wages and a shrinking workforce. This supply-side tightening challenges the d...
· 6 min read
BoJ's Intervention Signals a Faster Unwind for the Yen Carry Trade
The Bank of Japan's direct yen intervention is not FX management. It signals an accelerated policy normalization driven by domestic data,...
· 6 min read
China's Industrial Strategy Triggers a New Disinflationary Wave
China's pivot to 'new quality productive forces' is a deliberate strategy to export industrial overcapacity. This isn't a cyclical invent...
· 6 min read
Microsoft's Vertical Integration Play Alters AI Chip Dynamics
Microsoft's scaled 'Athena' silicon project is not a cost-cutting measure but a strategic pivot to gain supply chain leverage. This move ...
· 6 min read
The Market Is Misreading the March Jobs Report
Headline job growth is a distraction. The reacceleration in average hourly earnings is the critical signal, challenging the market's rate...
· 6 min read
Waller's March 28 Speech: The Fed's New 4.3% Problem
Fed Governor Waller's March 28 speech reset market expectations, citing a 4.3% annualized rise in 'supercore' inflation. This isn't just ...
· 8 min read
Salesforce's 18.5% Margin Cut: AI's Hidden Cost for SaaS?
Salesforce's FY27 margin guidance cut to 18.5% from 20.2% reveals AI's hidden cost. This isn't just a CRM issue; it's a fundamental chall...
· 7 min read
The Yield Curve Is Back to Normal, and Your Portfolio Isn't Ready
The 10Y-2Y spread at 56 bps and high-yield OAS near 3.2 indicate a market pricing better term structure while still rewarding lower credi...
· 7 min read
The 10Y-2Y Curve Is Positive Again at 56 bps. That Changes Carry Conversations
FRED data shows the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread back at 56 basis points on March 27, 2026, which means carry and steepener trades now sit in a...
· 6 min read
Real Money Is Back: Why 2 Percent Yields Are Changing Everything
Investors currently face a financial environment where the nominal return on a bond no longer tells the full story. To find the true valu...
· 6 min read
NVIDIA Closed Fiscal 2026 at $130.5B Revenue and Returned $33.7B to Shareholders
NVIDIA reported $130.5 billion fiscal-year revenue and $33.7 billion returned to shareholders, making this cycle as much about cash gener...
· 8 min read
IMF at 3.3% and World Bank at 2.7%: Why the 2026 Growth Gap Changes Risk Budgets
The IMF still projects 3.3% global growth for 2026, while the World Bank projects 2.7%. That spread is a portfolio-level warning about co...
· 8 min read
Why Investors Are Ignoring Inflation and Betting Big on High-Yield Debt
The credit markets in early 2026 present a study in contrasting signals. While the broader economic narrative suggests a cooling of the g...
· 7 min read
IMF Fiscal Monitor Signals Debt Above 100% of GDP This Decade With a 124% Stress Path
IMF Fiscal Monitor projections show global public debt surpassing 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, with an adverse scenario near 124...
· 7 min read
The ECB Is Done Playing Nice: Stability Is the New Mission
The mission of the European Central Bank has evolved far beyond the singular pursuit of lower prices. While the institution has spent muc...
· 6 min read
Google Cloud Operating Income Jumped to $5.3B in Q4 2025. AI Scale Is Hitting Margins
Alphabet reported Google Cloud operating income of $5.313 billion on $17.664 billion of Q4 revenue, a major profitability step-up during ...
· 7 min read